High Impact Exploration Is on The Rebound

2022 has seen an increase in high-impact exploration, with an expectation that as many as 90 wells will be delivered by the end of the year – the highest amount since 2019.

The first 6 months of 2022 saw the drilling of 38 high-impact exploration wells, and of those, 13 resulted in potentially commercial discoveries. That figure represents an impressive commercial success rate of 34%, and 6bn boe of discovered resource was delivered.

Frontier plays were tested in 8 of the wells, and Shell’s Graff and TotalEnergies’ Venus in offshore Namibia’s Orange Basin promised considerable basin-opening discoveries with Venus being 2022’s biggest discovery to date. Not only that, but 18 of the wells tested emerging plays which resulted in a 50% commercial rate of success, with 9 commercial discoveries.

Although the first few months of the year saw some excellent commercial successes, there were some significant play failures too.

Key frontier failures took place at offshore Kenya’s Lamu Basin’s Mlima, as well as offshore Montenegro’s Ulcinj. The attempt to extend the Dorado play in offshore Australia’s Roebuck Basin also didn’t pay off, and neither did the attempted extension of the Barra Upper Cretaceous Play in the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin.

There was also only a single possible commercial discovery in terms of high-impact exploration maturing and mature plays. Out of the 12 wells that were drilled, only the one at Huron in America’s Gulf of Mexico proved to have any promise. Multiple failures were also seen during the attempt to extend Brazil’s pre-salt play, and further disappointments were experienced in Azerbaijan’s shallow waters’ SWAP licence.

The final 6 months of 2022 look set to see an increase in high-impact drilling activity, and by the end of December, it is believed that up to 90 high-impact wells will have been drilled. The top hot spot for exploration will still be South America, and more wells are in the pipeline for offshore Brazil and the Suriname-Guyana basin.

2022 is also seeing further high-impact exploration in Africa. Key wells are planned in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and South Africa, following on from the success achieved in the first half of the year in Namibia. Although there was no drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean’s deep waters, 2022 is also seeing high-impact exploration returning to this area.

13 of the wells that are planned for the second half of 2022 are being named as top wells to watch. Those on the list include several of the frontier play tests such as Pensacola offshore UK and Raia offshore Mozambique. Some of the other notable wells on the list include Hoodoo in America’s Gulf of Mexico as well as Zanderij offshore Suriname which are extensions of proven plays. Wei offshore Guyana is another large proven play prospect that is being tipped as one to watch.